Saturday, February 11, 2012

CHINA- Why all the drama??


Are you fully invested in the market right now?  I’m not. (uugh!!)  Thankfully/Regretfully we’re not alone -  Stock trading around the world fell to the lowest level since at least 2006 even as global equities have been climbing higher. Barton Biggs (another super smart guy) saying this means we have further to go.  HELLZ YEA!!

Ok ladies be prepared – there will be loads of press on China inflation now (so basically pork on mainland is getting PRICEY!).  Jan inflation at 4.5% and market wanted 4%.  Now reason this sucks is because China’s economic growth is also normalizing and they need to inject some adrenaline into the economy.  Now if inflation is going up (and poor peeps are already stressing about food costs) it's hard to inject this ‘adrenaline.’  Because as much as the China government dudes want their hot wives (as well as sketchy mistresses) to buy more Louis Vuitton, they don't want to see poor peasants going nuts Tiananmen style. Unlike a lot of what our pro-democracy history teachers taught us (mine used to wear an Amerian flag pin on the lapel of his SEARS ROEBUCK SUIT) – they weren’t protesting for democracy – it was a peasant revolt on soaring food costs.      

Some people in the press are now going to say China’s going to COLLAPSE.  Now these people are as silly as the people who said the US is going to collapse like Japan (US demographics totally different to Japan - thank TEEN PREGNANCY and the CATHOLIC CHURCH) and culturally we’re way different (look at images of Katrina vs 2011 Tsunami).  Now back to China – unlike the US where the government is like SANTA CLAUS and encouraging you to spend your cash, China can't really do that.  It’s over 1 BILLION people (imagine how big that is – that's 3x the size of the US) and when people think things are getting expensive – they will hoard.  Kind of like what I saw in the Sak’s Jan shoe rampage which was pretty ridiculous and shut the whole store down.

Now do I think china is going to collapse? No.  First of all, the US is back – China really struggled when fat Americans stopped being able to afford  cheap ‘Made in China’ Walmart T-shirts and DVD players.  Thankfully we’re back and binging to buy more Tebow gear at our local Walmarts.  Also, what is China doing right now? They are quietly loosening – staying flexible on lending and injecting money into the economy. Unlike the US Fed, which like Santa Claus is asking us to SPEND, China is doing it quietly.  It’s going to take a long time to see how this plays out.  Be patient and just like that annoying boyfriend that’s always so mysterious – China’s making us work at it and read between the lines. 

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