OIL - As Clear as Black Gold

UUGH..NY Post used this ‘Pain in the Gas’ pun that I wanted to use today.  Also, sucks to write this when yesterday’s entry had me browsing through women’s porn (luxury US real estate websites) while today I’m googling gas prices. Sigh!  But, markets (like life) can’t always be sunshine and rainbows so today will be a bit less shiny/happy.

OIL - Tough post for me today but FULL DISCLOSURE I'm no expert.   Meanwhile, oil ranks alongside God, War and Sex as most debated/complicated three letter words EVER.  Start by knowing U$100 per barrel is a closely watched level.  Recently oil has cruised through U$100 to U$105.  This is where it gets uncomfortable and also receives a lot more attention (like the boy who still hasn't called since your date ten days ago).   Main issue now is escalating tensions between Israel and Iran over the nuclear situation.   And everyone’s involved. Latest is Iran stops oil sales to France and UK after EU tells Iran ‘Listen, you're nuke program is sketch .'  US obviously runs an even harder line with them.  Unfortunately this drama comes at a pretty lousy time because gas has already started to get pretty pricey in US (for Feb prices it's a record).  I don't drive (Asian female joke here would be very ill-timed), but I bet all my friends who ‘pay at the pump’ feel the pinch.  Not good, as US economy really can’t have you scaling back - they need you splurge on those Doritos and People Magazines!

Little is clear-cut about oil.  In fact, rising oil prices aren't even always  just ‘Bad’.  Naturally happens when world is growing (and simply using more of it).  And then it also happens in times of rising Middle East tensions which is why it soared on September 11.   Currently I guess it’s both.  Really  wish I knew how current oil predicament resolves itself (I'd be sporting a Nobel Peace prize and my readership could go VIRAL).  Sadly, I don't.  Worst case, there's a war between Israel and Iran (NOBODY WANTS THIS!)  If this happens, close this blog, put on a khaki safari shirt, buy bottled water and follow Christiane Amanpour. 

Seriously, oil price debates last days not hours (which we don't have).  However, it's fair to say world economic recovery is tested if they stay at all-time highs for a prolonged period.  Few glimmers of hope.  Peace in the Mideast?  Ok more realistic.  Americans (the biggest consumer) isn’t as dependent on importing oil and in 2011 became a net exporter of for first time in 62 years.  Shale oil drilling has helped here which is not without its critics.    Other reasons include: huge Brazil reserves (we talked about this yesterday..Brazilians are so lucky!) and other energy sources (Yes, everyone loves solar but the more controversial liquefied natural gas).

Omg - I have to stop there - I am even boring myself!  I’m sorry this entry is long.  It's just that oil price direction is about as clear as black gold.  Appropriate analogy – oil prices is like Goldilocks’ porridge.  But world economy is not a fairy tale so hard to be perfectly ‘just right’.  Best we can hope for is to be prepared for some unexpected surprises and that we all get along.