Election's over - move on!

Finally this election is over and we can go back to speaking amicably with our friends on the other side of the aisle.  And while I won't bore you with my own political ideology, it's fair to expect two things: higher taxes and an accommodative Fed.  It means the jury's still out on how the stock-market behaves longer term.  That said, I am confident that US housing is fast recovering.  I know I've been talking about the US housing recovery ad-nauseam but I'd actually venture I've been too conservative.  In fact, it's only recently (in my own scramble to purchase in the US) have I realized the pace of the recovery.  Likewise, I have been unpleasantly surprised to realize that the mad dynamics of the HK property market have found its way to US.  That means you'll be competing with a glut of wealthy Chinese buyers happy to pay all-cash!!  Wish me luck.                

Vintage hits Asia

Anyone who knows me knows I'm a total sucker for vintage.  I'm obsessed to be honest!!  Well, perhaps I need to find a way to profit from it.  Long-considered stigma to go second-hand (and it kind-of still is), perception is starting to change here in Asia.  I have already started to see Lane Crawford carry vintage at some pretty impressive prices.  Likewise interesting article here.  I could actually see this working well in China.  Counterfeiting is an increasing problem and vintage is a great way sartorially savvy consumers can distinguish themselves.  Anyway it's wait and see but I'm a buyer.  Incidentally, if you need a good vintage contact, I'd go with Erin at Resurrection in LA.  She's the BEST!!   Tell her a HK-vintage addict sent you, she'll figure it out!

Invest for Inflation

I'm going to bet you'll hear a lot more about inflation.  The US$ is cheap while the American economy is improving.  It means goods and services inevitably get more expensive.  Now this is a problem as people worry that their money isn't doing anything while the world gets pricier.  It would imply your money's purchasing power is eroding.  That's why everyone is  binging on real estate, gold, stock markets, whatever.  This is called inflation hedging.

Personally I'm terrified of inflation.  And, as I get older it becomes more real.  Especially when I recall what things used to cost.   Don't do it - it makes you feel ANCIENT.  I did this just recently when I caught up with my 14 year old god-daughter.   Unfortunately for her, I was blubbering on about what things used to cost when I was her age.  OMG - So Dorky (I know)!  But, my point is make sure your money is working for you.  Please Invest wisely.

Quickly want to talk about my god-daughter again.  She's great and I'm always so impressed with her style as well as the tunes on her iPod.  Incidentally why don't teenage girls have awkward stages anymore?!?!  Apologies I digress.  I recently saw her sporting a Coach carrier pouch.  It looked so fashionable on her and it seems to be the purse of the moment with teens (much like when I was growing up).  Meanwhile the stock has pulled back hugely.  Indeed, it's a poor cousin to Hermes but I don't think anyone under 30 years of age should be sporting Hermes anyway!  Sorry if I offended so will finish here.  Opinions about Coach aside, if you start to see their product go viral (Lululemon style), maybe have a look at the stock.  

20% off SHOPBOP

Exciting News!!  It's 20% off on Shopbop (enter the code 'WEAREFAMILY' as the promotion code).   And.. it's probably ok to treat yourself a little.  Markets are trading well and it seems to be a good time to be invested in risk assets.  Sorry to all my male friends who had promoted my blog to their other halves in hopes of making them more financially savvy.  By no means is this  an edict to go on a spending binge.  However, I would prod you to take some risk.  Be it in the stock market or on shopbop.  For me, I find it way easier to take some risk investing in a stock while I take few risks in the sartorial world.  On that vein, I'm going to 'practice what I preach' and veer away from my Jbrand junkie habits and try Notify Jeans.  See you on shopbop!                      

China's Back (and me too!)

Wow I suck!!  Has it really been two weeks since my last entry?  Guess I broke the cardinal rule of blogging (which I understand to be update daily and don't disappear).  Anyway I don't have any great excuses but I have been busy.  First of all, I've started watching the new HBO series Girls.  It's only ok so that's not a valid excuse.  More believable is that things have gotten considerably busier at work.  Thankfully, the China market appears to have a pulse again with increasing optimism that policy makers get their act together by the power transition on November 8.  And finally (and most exciting as I'm a HK property owner), the property market has gone nuts!  Prices have hit record highs and I've been bombarded with calls to show my flat.  Guess it's kind of the phenomenon happening in many major markets.  That would be the trifecta of:  cheap money, easier borrowing environment, and opportunistic investors (from around the globe) buying in hopes of collecting rent (yield).  All bodes very well for property.

Too hard to tell how long this can continue but jeez isn't it nice to hear people positive about property again?  It's been such a depressing topic for so long and everybody deserves a break.  Even this delinquent blogger!  
    

Indone$ia?

Have you been to Indonesia (and Bali does not count) ?  I'm embarrassed to admit I have not.  Particularly, as one of my closest friends is of Indonesian-Chinese descent.  In any case, looks like things are getting pretty exciting over there.  I already knew this resource-rich country was doing well, but it seems to really be chugging along.  Incidentally I just read they are the Asian country minting millionaires at the fastest pace! Impressive, right?  Anyway I'm keen to check it out.  I hope my friend invites me on her next trip.          

Luxury G$$ds

Golden Week and it's crazy around HK.  It's kind of perplexing as you read a lot of doomsday press about the Chinese economic slowdown, and then you walk into Prada!!  Anyway the wealthy Chinese look to be showing very little price elasticity.  This is probably why I like the luxury trade so much.  Freshly minted millionaires (of all nationalities) are all guilty of crimes of conspicuous consumption.  Moreover, those who are far from millionaires aspire to look like them!  I'll make my own confession here.  NYC circa 2001 - My two roommates and I were sharing a 550 square foot apartment in the East Village.  Claustrophobic and broke but it didn't stop us from binging on $700 Jimmy Choo stiletto boots. Talk about priorities - this meant we'd literally starve for the month!  It's madness, I know!  In any case, I'd venture we weren't alone and thankfully for purveyors of luxury - a new conspicuous consumer is born every second.  Why do you think Van Cleef makes the Clover bracelet for babies?      

Women's Porn

Do you guys love browsing real-estate websites as much as I do?  I hear most women do and I've actually heard housing sites nicknamed 'women's porn'.  Is this universal or only with Asian women?  Anyway, to all you 'porn' addicts, things may be getting way more interesting.  It's official - Prices are on the rise.  I hope you're as excited about it as I am.

Speaking of exciting, I'll tell you about the biggest story in HK right now.  A HK tycoon has offered U$62m for someone to marry his daughter (who is actually very cute).  Story gets better - She's a lesbian!  You can't make this stuff up!  Anyway good luck boys (sorry ladies need not apply as it's strictly for male suitors only)!  Although, that's pretty lame of daddy dearest!  

No more Banker Bashing!

I was sick today but still had to head into town to pick up some medicines.  While there (and looking horrible), I ran into a lot of people who were concerned as to why I wasn't at work.  You see, banking has had a brutal year of job cuts and it's probably not over.  Very sobering, I know.  Thankfully, I am definitely a glass half-full type person so I'm staying optimistic.  Recently I've found myself running into lots of former bankers doing very cool things: Restaurants, websites, retail, education, social media, you name it!  

So when your discouraged banker friends get a bit suicidal, remind them: 'You're good enough, You're smart enough and god damnit, people like you'.  Even if it means you'll need to give up the Mercedes.     

Gangnam Style and Gold Diggers

Heard PSY and his Gangnam Style hit Hong Kong last night.  Jeez - he's gone viral.  I didn't go but imagine it would have been fun!  If you haven't seen the video, watch here.  It's a funny/ catch parody of the materialistic 'new money' culture around Seoul's fanciest district, Gangnam.

Indeed being 'flash with cash' is pretty cheesy, but maybe being a gold-digger isn't so bad?  With increasing expectations around the Fed's QE3, a lot of people are looking to hide in Gold.  Yes, Gold has already had a huge run.  However, if you're convinced the US Government keeps printing money (making money cheap), then Gold may be a more attractive option to holding cash.  I'll let you decide if this is where you want to hide, but it's certainly in the press.  

United States of Awesome!

Just back from attending the Nantucket wedding of some very dear friends.  Hit NYC en route to the 'Tuck' and both were wonderful.  Incidentally next time you are in NYC, please dine at Blue Hill and Nomad.  Both were startlingly good.  And Nantucket...wow!!  All jokes aside about Nantucket Reds and critter-embroidered clothing, the island is remarkably beautiful.  It was truly a perfect weekend filled with old and new friends joined together to celebrate a wonderful couple.

And what a great time to be in the US.  Finger-pointing election banter aside, it really feels like things are improving.  I realize NYC and Nantucket are hardly a broad measure of the American economy, but the US stock market (both S&P and Dow) trading at multi-year highs is a real measure.  Moreover, NYC, the city where risk appetite is set, is buzzing.  Real estate is flying; Restaurants are packed at 10:30 on a Sunday night; Hotels are at occupancy; Gyms are charging U$30 for a group spin class..WOW!   Likewise my favorite company Apple (see previous posts), just topped U$700/share following reports of massive iBinging.

I'm not trying to be unrealistically optimistic here.  It's worrying the US has a fiscal deficit problem that must be addressed.  But, for now, it looks like the stock market is the place to hide.

Wary of Burberry? Try Hermes

Hey, to the Fashion Fool who decided to take my credit card on a Burberry shopping spree (see previous post), the Burberry numbers today were terrible.   Actually I would have expected that!   When was the last time you saw anyone in Burberry?  Anyway no insult to anyone who likes Burberry.  It's just that after my recent credit card debacle, I will continue to be suspicious of anyone sporting plaid tan!  Hope I didn't offend anyone.

Conversely, anyone else struggling to source the Hermes Collier de Chien cuff?  I love it and they are impossible to find.  I'm wait listed in both Paris and HK with my chances looking slim.  Looks like this is the Birkin of cuffs and it's waitlist-only for mere mortals.  Seems the Hermes-hoarding continues while the stock is pulling back?  Hmm...recall my investment thesis?  Invest in companies you like, understand and believe in.  That said, I'm going to start doing my Hermes Homework.    

Tale of a Tacky Thief!!

Two days of beautiful weather here in HK.  Would have been the perfect weekend except I had my credit card number stolen.   The most frustrating part is that I will now need to re-set all my Auto-pays.  What a pain!  That said, I was mildly amused to  hear the thief used it to go on a Burberry binge in Canada.  Anyway, to this morally bankrupt but materialistic character: You probably look ridiculous draped head to toe in Burberry plaid!  Irony is I've always been wary of Asian people clad in Burberry, guess I have good reason now.    

Pretty inconvenient time to have a defunct card as I'm headed to the US this week.  It's a quick trip to attend a wedding but I'm also pretty interested to see how it feels in the US.  Election year banter is painting a really tough picture of the American economy, but US markets are trading at multi-year highs.  What gives?  Anyway, I'm excited to go check it out for myself and can report back then!!        

French take Manhattan!

Crunch time to the election and can't come fast enough.  Pretty sick of the political bickering.  Incidentally, while I will vote this year, I have no intention of boring you with any of my own political ideology.  However, I don't think I'm being too controversial when I describe the candidates' wives as very attractive.  Let's list them: Michelle Obama, Jill Biden, Ann Romney, Janna Ryan.  They are all kind of hot and stylish (for the most part).  Without being too disrespectful, compare these leading ladies to the likes of Hillary Clinton, Tipper Gore, Laura Bush, and Lynn Cheney. Indeed the DC wives have come a long way!  And who says Carla Bruni is the only pretty political wife out there?  That sad, I do think Carla still easily takes best-dressed, but that's to be expected given she's French.

Speaking of France, you'll likely see the French exodus continue (I first blogged of this post my European vacation on August 8).  LVMH Chairman Bernard Arnault will meet with French PM Ayrault tomorrow to defend a decision to move 200 executives to New York who want to avoid French taxes.  Being a Francophile, I think that's great for Manhattan!!  And being a US housing bull, also a positive datapoint for NYC housing.  But, I'm not living/owning in NYC, so I hope they're headed over to Hong Kong as well.   
   

Labor Day Envy!

Labor Day in the US and I'm envious.  Actually, given how easy US markets have been (relative to Asia, specifically China), I think I deserve to be a bit jealous.  After all, it's those of us here in Asia that have been having a bit of a mare while the US seems to be chugging along.

Accordingly, Ben Bernanke set everyone up for a restful Labor Day with his benign address at the FOMC meeting in Jackson Hole.  While not being specific, he made the case for further easing to help the US economy.  Interesting that everyone's so quick to believe Ben.  Meanwhile China's governments (both at local and national levels) have earmarked over RMB20T in economic stimulus and the market can't catch a bid.  Pretty discouraging as RMB20T is a massive sum - in fact, it's roughly 40% of China's GDP.   Tough times for those who subscribe to the theory of 'just throwing money at the problem'.  For now, China's acting more like the oft-cited complaint 'mo money, mo problems'.      

    

Did you see Ann?

Political affiliations aside, didn't Ann Romney look great at the Republican National Convention?  I really have to hand it to her, she has aged remarkably well.  However, the 'love' she lamented so wistfully of in her address, doesn't look to have made it out to the Far East.  Or more specifically to China as the Chinese markets hit a new 42 month low.  And, the U.S. press is particularly critical of the current Chinese economic climate.  Just logging into CNBC right now (Pathetic but I'm detoxing and BORED) and look at the Top 4 headlines:


China — Not Wall Street — Caused 2008 Crisis: Study
China’s ‘Zombie Firms’ a Growing Risk: Andy Xie
China Agbank Profit Misses as Margins Shrink
China's Biggest Steelmaker: 'Most Difficult' Period Ahead

Anyway, given how important China is to the world economy, I hope it does get some love.  Hey, Ann donned Red last night, and while it is the patriotic choice, it is also China's national color.   

I want to go to Jackson Hole!

The Fed's Annual Symposium kicks off in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week.  Incidentally, have you been to Jackson Hole?  I've never been there but it's definitely on my list of places to ski.  Actually, do you notice how many of the serious high-brow conferences take place in cool ski destinations?  I suppose the Sundance Film Festival in Park City comes to mind first but it extends beyond Hollywood.  There is the World Economic Forum in Davos; Allen & Co Sun Valley Conference and now the Fed's Annual Symposium in Jackson Hole.  All supposed to be stunning locations with lots of outdoor activities and very accommodating airports (a requisite given they'll be handling fleets of private jets).

Anyway, I hope everyone got a nice little nap on their ride over because I hear there is actually a lot of work done at these conferences.  I also imagine a fair amount of 'play' but will suspend my skepticism.  Getting back on track - The Fed's Annual Symposium kicks off this week in Jackson Hole.  It's a highly anticipated event as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak and there's huge debate around  the likelihood of further US stimulus.  Until then, markets are kind of wait and see.  Just wish I was waiting/seeing in the picturesque landscape of Jackson Hole!

Confessions of a Delinquent Blogger

Sorry I've been MIA (Missing in Action).  Those who know me well would suspect I've been out on holiday. Sadly, that's not the case.  Frankly I've been working a ton and it's all been a bit depressing.  Yes, US markets had been smooth sailing for the most part, but, we're really struggling to follow here in HK/China.  In fact, the Chinese A-share market is now at 2009 year lows.  Extremely discouraging as the Chinese government has already promised billions of dollars of stimulus commitments to help the economy.  Nothing's working!

Bring me to my next point (and bear with me please).  Did you know Bo Xi Lai's wife, Mrs Gu (so much less confusing if she was Mrs. Bo), was convicted of murder?  Recall, Bo Xi Lai is one of the highest ranking members of the Chinese Communist leadership who had that staggering fall from grace.  Bo and his wife have been accused of wide spread corruption, including stealing hundred of millions of dollars, and his wife has just been convicted of murdering a British business associate.  Hugely scandalous/ high-profile case that you'd imagine would go on for months in a Western court.  Oddly enough, Mrs. Gu's murder trial lasted 48 hours and barely publicized.  In fact there is even rampant speculation that it wasn't even Mrs. Gu on trial but it was a body double.  You can't make this stuff up!!

To sum it up, seems the Chinese government is struggling with a pretty rampant credibility problem right now.  Imagine if this were happening in your home country, it would be pretty tough to trust your politicians?  Anyway, I hope China gets it's act together soon as it's been a brutal year.

Red White & Bullish

It may be ok to bookmark net-a-porter into your favorites again!!  Are the days of austerity over?   It certainly seems to be the case if you are in the US.  Yes, there the are the doomsday politicians offering harrowing tales of 'fiscal cliffs', however, that doesn't seem to matter right now.  US markets are trading near 4 year highs and US housing seems not only to be recovering, it's flourishing in some cities.      

Great if you're long US real-estate.  Unfortunately, for me, while I've been talking about it ad nauseam, I have not pulled the trigger.  Frustrating as I've been looking to this for some time (see US Housing posts).  While I only have myself to blame, my geography handicapped me a bit as well.  Not only was I too far to concentrate on it, the time zone always works against me.  Moreover, my close proximity to Chinese markets (that are near 2009 year lows) has made it difficult to get overly bullish.

Hmmm..sounds like we should all bookmark some US real-estate websites and hold off on net-a-porter (for now).

Stormy Weather...

Ugggh...barely slept last night after some seriously scary thunder.  Have to be honest, I still get frightened by really heavy thunder storms.  Especially the super loud ones when the sky is jolting with lightning flashes.

Now it's another Typhoon Warning.   Speaking of storms, China continues to be a tricky place.  While it's no secret that the world's fastest growing economy has been slowing, how bad is it?  Debate continues but many are arguing if the Chinese government doesn't start stimulating in a meaningful way SOON, it could be pretty disruptive.  Kind of like the weather last night.  Stay safe!