French take Manhattan!

Crunch time to the election and can't come fast enough.  Pretty sick of the political bickering.  Incidentally, while I will vote this year, I have no intention of boring you with any of my own political ideology.  However, I don't think I'm being too controversial when I describe the candidates' wives as very attractive.  Let's list them: Michelle Obama, Jill Biden, Ann Romney, Janna Ryan.  They are all kind of hot and stylish (for the most part).  Without being too disrespectful, compare these leading ladies to the likes of Hillary Clinton, Tipper Gore, Laura Bush, and Lynn Cheney. Indeed the DC wives have come a long way!  And who says Carla Bruni is the only pretty political wife out there?  That sad, I do think Carla still easily takes best-dressed, but that's to be expected given she's French.

Speaking of France, you'll likely see the French exodus continue (I first blogged of this post my European vacation on August 8).  LVMH Chairman Bernard Arnault will meet with French PM Ayrault tomorrow to defend a decision to move 200 executives to New York who want to avoid French taxes.  Being a Francophile, I think that's great for Manhattan!!  And being a US housing bull, also a positive datapoint for NYC housing.  But, I'm not living/owning in NYC, so I hope they're headed over to Hong Kong as well.   
   

French Exodus?

I'm back!  Full disclosure: I have been back for a while but I've been a little delinquent having been preoccupied with the Olympics.  Seriously it is the best two weeks of television, agree?  Amazing, inspiring, exciting, emotional..what is there not to like?  Incidentally I don't think I'm alone as markets globally have been humming along smoothly.

Well, I have to be honest (without sounding flippant) France felt just fine.  Admittedly, I am a Francophile.  Moreover, I was in some pretty high profile vacation destinations so of course the mood felt upbeat.  That said, I did encounter plenty of pissed-off French who are vowing to leave should Hollande's plans to tax the rich materialize.

Where are they headed?  I'd imagine foreigner-friendly/ low tax destinations will be their first destination.  Probably explains why property prices in cities like New York, London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Monaco have remained resilient despite a tricky economic climate.  As a HK property owner I hope it lasts and frankly I'd be delighted with a new neighbor to help me with my French.  Au Revoir!    

EU Summit Ends

Hong Kong holiday and boy do we deserve it!!  It was a tough week but actually ended in a surge of optimism.  Euro zone leaders completed their summit and agreed to take emergency action to help banks in Spain and Italy.  They also announced Euro area rescue funds could be used to help a countries' debt markets without having to adopt extra austerity measures.  Details are still missing and skepticism is high (especially in Germany) but markets reacted well.  Still too early to say we're out of the woods but let's take it one day at a time.  Thankfully this week it's only four days!  

Escape with Ephron..

Nora Ephron passed - how sad!  I'll always remember when 'Harry met Sally' as one of the original romantic comedies.  Well, it's a good time to pay tribute to Nora and retreat into some of your favorite Ephron flicks.  Indeed romantic comedies may be contrived and unrealistic but I'm ok with that right now.  You see, reality is a bit bleak. It's wait and see until we see statements from yet another Eurozone meeting this week.  And even then nobody's convinced on how to bolster the Euro.  Euro's sustainability aside, banks are under ongoing scrutiny and it will continue at least until next month's results (but likely longer).   Uggh...what happened to the sunny/carefree days of summer?

6 Weeks of GUARANTEED Vaca!!

Crunch time for  EU policy makers.  Later this week, they'll be meeting in Brussels to figure out what they can do to help the Euro.  That said, it looks like there are no easy solutions.  Trying to impose austerity isn't going to be an easy sell.  Frankly it's a bit culturally inconsistent with a lot of European habits.  For example, note that a European court just ruled that if you get sick during your guaranteed six week vacation, you can take another.  How awesome is that?!?!  Very, right?  Yes and no.  In terms of work/life balance, we really have to hand it to the Europeans.  However, such leisurely lifestyles isn't so conducive to resuscitating an economy on life support.    


 

GUEST BLOGGER TODAY - 'Going Dutch'

Very exciting stuff today ladies!  A post from my very first guest blogger.   My Dutch friend agreed to this in light of recent developments in his home country, Holland. I did my best to guide him, however, 'upfront apologies for soccer references, absence of witty word play and total lack of luxury brand name dropping.'   I think he's being unfairly critical or fishing for compliments because it's really well-written.  I'll let you be the judge.  Editor's comments in BOLD.  

There have been times when being Dutch and living abroad was easy. Being Dutch mostly meant being associated with a handful of decent Dutch soccer players, a liberal drug policy and a general sense of tolerance (or dimness brought on by said drug policy).   

Recently, the Dutch international image has taken some hits. In 2010, a shockingly violent team of Dutch soccer gladiators did a demolition job on the Spanish team during the World Cup Final (and painfully, still lost). Last year, a far-right party known for harsh views on immigrants and Islam became one of the largest political parties, not exactly in line with the perception of Holland as a tolerant and open society. On top of everything else, foreign tourists will soon have turn elsewhere to go day-tripping, as so-called Dutch coffee-shops will only serve “coffee” to locals.

This weekend things got a little worse. The Dutch became the Euro-crisis’ next, and first Northern European, victim (earlier casualties were mostly Southern European: Greece, Italy, Spain). Same problem, different country: the Dutch government spent more than it should have on the usual (welfare, social security, etc.) and the unusual (animal cops – no joke). The result is a government deficit (spend > income: this concept may sound familiar to the target audience of this blog…) that is bigger than what is allowed under the European Union rules. Talks to cut back spending collapsed and so this weekend the Dutch government collapsed as well.

The Dutch problems are probably fixable in the long term, but in the short run, expect more uncertainty as political fighting to tighten the purses continues: finally, a legitimate excuse for the Dutch to go Dutch.   Disagree here as we know this is pretty inexcusable in early-stage dating.  Thankfully, I don't think my guest blogger himself would ever go Dutch.  But don't take my word for it.  Find out for yourself tonight at Heirloom's Tacos n Tequila Tuesdays.  We can introduce you :) 

Desperate times call for desperate measures

FINALLY!  Weigh-in is today.  I'll probably eek out a flat finish. Whatever!  Please don't ever join a weight loss competition!  It's dumb and girls simply can’t compete.  Unlike guys, we can't chug laxative tea by the gallons and then shamelessly excuse ourselves to the bathroom, newspaper in tow.  Sorry to be gross but those are tactics boys will use.  Welcome to my world right now.

We also FINALLY got the size of Europe's LTRO-2 (help for banks package) announced yesterday.  And part two was even bigger this time at EUR 529.5b!  Maybe sounds a little bit like bankers getting another bailout?  Kind of, but it's bigger than that as healthy and functioning banks are critical. Just quickly go back to that disaster scenario of deflation. Deflation is a general decline in prices (opposite of inflation) often ‘caused by a reduction in the money supply or credit.’  Precisely what happened in the scary 2008 Financial Crisis.  Everyone wanted their money back!  Banks (who had lent generously to McMansion owners); stock-market investors (who were once proud Lehman Brothers shareholders); and then of course the poor Madoff investors.

For this reason governments need to be prepared to aid banks and literally be the lender of last resort.  That’s what the US government did in the 2008 Crisis and currently what Europe is doing.  Yes there are critics of this and it's expensive but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Speaking of desperate...I have to run now...Need to wrap myself in a plastic suit and sit in the sauna. Weigh-in is in 2 hours.

Single but not alone

Ever been to Mexico City?  Nope neither have I.  Although maybe I should as I would go almost anywhere for good Mexican food (side note I had the most amazing pork belly taco at Heirloom Saturday and it was INSANE).  Anyway back to Mexico City - leaders from the major 20 economies (G20) are hanging out there discussing ways to help Eurozone.  Talk is of a whopping U$2T - Umm..Germany might need some strong Tequila to wash that down.


Nice-ish weekend here in HK -  Ate well although rainy weather.  Kind of an apt description of markets.  Markets did pretty well as US hit levels not seen since 2008 but then crude oil hit $109/barrel.  Uuugghh!  Sucks because we just saw good US consumer confidence numbers - let's hope oil doesn't ruin this.   Anyway it's Monday so let's keep it short and light.   Heard a funny joke at work recently.  Why are divorces so expensive?  Because they're so F%cken worth it.  Told by a male colleague and all the guys laughed.  However, I wanted to say - Hey, your wife should be the one making that joke!

More and more women are ending up single.  Divorces, yes, but also just women being single.  We can debate if they are choosing to do so or if it's a doomed destiny (this is better done with a bottle of Chardonnay) but the reality is that single women are on the rise.  I remember first reading this in the Economist and I was kind of shocked but seems this structural shift is global.  This has huge implications for family structure, world demographics and of course the economy.  Advertisers know it - Companies know it - And guess we should realize it too (even if it can be a little depressing).


Without sounding too 'I am woman, hear me roar' (most of us shriek and whine more than roar, right?),  but it's a great time for women entrepreneurs.  Who understands us better than us?  I am currently trying to convince a very good friend to start blogging features about women who have built businesses.  Personally I love reading about them and much prefer to read about the girls who put Juicy on so many well-toned butts than Lloyd Blankein's rise at Goldman.  Maybe if you keep reading/ forwarding/liking, maybe even start commenting, she'll be convinced.  I've had one comment on this blog so far and it's from my GUY friend Ben.  Please don't make me rename my blog to Ben and the Biz.  

Maybe he's just that into you

I frequent a delicious restaurant in HK called HEIRLOOM.  If you live in HK, Go now! It's a beautiful eatery and watering hole founded and run by two amazing women. Both unbelievably creative and talented chefs but of rather motley backgrounds. Ashton Winkler is of Mexican heritage and excels at baking while Vivian Herijanto is Indonesian-Chinese with a flair for the savory (makes them sound like domestic partners but that’s not the case).  Together they have created a wonderful fusion of food you LOVE TO EAT.  Imagine: scrumptious curries, Mexican street corn, exquisite Balinese fish tacos and red velvet cupcakes to-die-for. 

Well, if food imitates life, won't be long before we could start seeing a lot more Chinese and European fusion  (would a Sweet n Sour Gyro be tasty?).  You see, I’m no expert on the Euro but I have been saying EURO-zone cannot fail (blog Feb 13). Some people call me an optimist about this but I think I'm more a pragmatist.  I look at Euro-zone as a huge mansion with tons of different wings. Germany is the pimped out Bang & Olufson wing while Greece looks more like my college boyfriend’s DISGUSTING (and Health Department condemned) frat room.  Can't be more different but if anything sets on fire – we risk the whole mansion burning down.  That is why everyone is afraid of Euro contagion.

I’ve alway maintained it’s really really unfathomable that the world would just watch quietly as the whole mansion burned to bits.  And recently we’re  seeing the adults step in.  Wednesday, most Asian markets traded very well after cash-rich China (who had been acting like that strong/silent/emotionally-unavailable boyfriend) finally caved and told the Euro-zone – ‘Hey, I’m into it.’  and announces ‘I'm committed and in this with you’.  

Doesn't mean it's smooth sailing (and early days so DO NOT buy that Vera Wang) but it is game on and maybe he's just that into you?

Greeks Gone Wild!!!

I've been so excited about markets recently, I wore a fur vest (totally tasteful) Friday and everyone teased I was dressing bling, bull market (it’s HK you can wear fur).  Anyway spendaholic Americans are back (at least for now, hopefully forever)– we saw a super strong January export number from China  (means China's shipping out lots and lots of Superbowl T-shirts and iPads).  Now if you get trapped in some sort of China debate (a fate I wouldn't wish upon anyone but happened to my friend on a match.com date) they could argue imports were weak (not as many Chinese kids buying Yao Ming, now Jeremy Lin, basketball jerseys).   They’ll use this to argue the Chinese economy is weak and not spending – to which you smugly rebut it was Chinese New Year (DUH!!) and EVERYTHING shuts down during that time.  If they want to debate it further – (a) roll your eyes and walk away – so BORING (b) escape to the bathroom and avoid them the rest of the evening.  

Weekend was all about Greece.  If you notice, being compared to 'Greece' has become a pretty nasty insult recently (every European country saying 'we're not Greece').  However Greeks are acting pretty naughty right now.  They need money so the European Union is telling them, 'Fine, we’ll bail you out, but you better get your act together and don't do it again' - basically austerity measures.  And Greeks are pretty pissed off about it. Some of it is kind of funny – I mean everybody hates paying taxes but Greeks are kind of extreme/awesome/funny about it. Great example - more Porsche Cayennes registered in Greece than taxpayers who can afford them.  Now while German luxury car makers are delighted the Greeks enjoy ‘pimping their ride’ unfortunately the Greek government is bankrupt.  This means Europe (Euro-zone) countries, who are bound together by a common currency but culturally very different, are pretty unhappy about bailing them out (Like how annoying if we had to bail out Oklahoma or West Virginia).  And unfortunately it’s not just Greece – which is why you always hear about PIIGS/Eurozone contagion (Portugal, Italy, Ireland Greece and Spain) with even my beloved France in trouble.  Basically it’s now only Germany who truly has its house in order. Yes..it is all a slow moving train-wreck (basically been going on since 2009) but it really kicked off as penniless Greece has EUR14.5b to pay back by Mar 20. 

Just this morning, Greece finally, with lots of rioting, agreed to the terms (austerity measures).  Now nobody likes a good party to end, but Greece has been misbehaving Lindsay Lohan style, as the country runs out of options and risk getting kicked out of the Euro-Zone.   Basically it’s all a gigantic disaster and this movie isn’t over.  Still, I don't think Greece or Europe implodes – Everyone regrets letting Lehman implode, doubt we’ll experiment with Europe.  However it is a bumpy bumpy ride and getting Greeks to accept their medicine  (austerity measures) will be a painful and drawn out process.  I mean I would riot too if you upped my 35 hour work week and extended my retirement age (Greece's age is 50 – HOW AWESOME!). 

Confession here – im a Europhile – and I have yet to hit a European destination i didn't enjoy.  However I don't see anyone writing books praising the success of  European economic policy.  I do believe it will all work out in the end with everyone just having to suck it up.  In the meantime it is promised to be a very noisy ride.  That’s why I prefer to keep my money in the US for now and Asia (Korea/Taiwan/China).  Workaholic /fast growing/efficient countries are not as charming to visit, but right now it’s a less scary place to make money.