Women's Porn

Do you guys love browsing real-estate websites as much as I do?  I hear most women do and I've actually heard housing sites nicknamed 'women's porn'.  Is this universal or only with Asian women?  Anyway, to all you 'porn' addicts, things may be getting way more interesting.  It's official - Prices are on the rise.  I hope you're as excited about it as I am.

Speaking of exciting, I'll tell you about the biggest story in HK right now.  A HK tycoon has offered U$62m for someone to marry his daughter (who is actually very cute).  Story gets better - She's a lesbian!  You can't make this stuff up!  Anyway good luck boys (sorry ladies need not apply as it's strictly for male suitors only)!  Although, that's pretty lame of daddy dearest!  

French take Manhattan!

Crunch time to the election and can't come fast enough.  Pretty sick of the political bickering.  Incidentally, while I will vote this year, I have no intention of boring you with any of my own political ideology.  However, I don't think I'm being too controversial when I describe the candidates' wives as very attractive.  Let's list them: Michelle Obama, Jill Biden, Ann Romney, Janna Ryan.  They are all kind of hot and stylish (for the most part).  Without being too disrespectful, compare these leading ladies to the likes of Hillary Clinton, Tipper Gore, Laura Bush, and Lynn Cheney. Indeed the DC wives have come a long way!  And who says Carla Bruni is the only pretty political wife out there?  That sad, I do think Carla still easily takes best-dressed, but that's to be expected given she's French.

Speaking of France, you'll likely see the French exodus continue (I first blogged of this post my European vacation on August 8).  LVMH Chairman Bernard Arnault will meet with French PM Ayrault tomorrow to defend a decision to move 200 executives to New York who want to avoid French taxes.  Being a Francophile, I think that's great for Manhattan!!  And being a US housing bull, also a positive datapoint for NYC housing.  But, I'm not living/owning in NYC, so I hope they're headed over to Hong Kong as well.   
   

Red White & Bullish

It may be ok to bookmark net-a-porter into your favorites again!!  Are the days of austerity over?   It certainly seems to be the case if you are in the US.  Yes, there the are the doomsday politicians offering harrowing tales of 'fiscal cliffs', however, that doesn't seem to matter right now.  US markets are trading near 4 year highs and US housing seems not only to be recovering, it's flourishing in some cities.      

Great if you're long US real-estate.  Unfortunately, for me, while I've been talking about it ad nauseam, I have not pulled the trigger.  Frustrating as I've been looking to this for some time (see US Housing posts).  While I only have myself to blame, my geography handicapped me a bit as well.  Not only was I too far to concentrate on it, the time zone always works against me.  Moreover, my close proximity to Chinese markets (that are near 2009 year lows) has made it difficult to get overly bullish.

Hmmm..sounds like we should all bookmark some US real-estate websites and hold off on net-a-porter (for now).

Olympic 2012 Wrap-Up

Sadly the Olympics have come and gone.  Actually while I'm disappointed it's over, I'm kind of relieved I don't have to hear any more of Bolt's annoying boasting.  Yes, he's an amazing athlete!  But a little grace and modesty (even if it's fake) would go a long way.  We're certainly not seeing Michael Phelps brag shamelessly.  On that note, what a great year to be an American!!  Kudos to our Olympians (particularly women) on an outrageous performance.  Likewise, a serious Congratulations to our cousins across the pond - Great Britain!  Frankly, having seen the 2008 Olympics, I  had worried it might be impossible for anyone to come close to the show staged in Beijing.  But, the Brits pulled it off.  They staged an original, tasteful, memorable event and won a ton of Gold medals along the way.

Incidentally, the 2012 Olympics serves as an apt analogy to current market dynamics.  China's 'dream economy' continues to battle growing (or lack thereof) pains.  Meanwhile the US markets look to be muddling through (despite the negative campaign rhetoric).   In fact, I'd argue there are some genuine signs of a housing recovery emerging in the US.  And, need I mention the thriving London housing market?  Admittedly most of it due to an exodus of of wealthy denizens from the Middle East, Russia and Euro-zone countries.

Let's wrap it up here.  It's a Monday night and I'm finally Olympic-free so I need to catch up on my sleep!          

              

French Exodus?

I'm back!  Full disclosure: I have been back for a while but I've been a little delinquent having been preoccupied with the Olympics.  Seriously it is the best two weeks of television, agree?  Amazing, inspiring, exciting, emotional..what is there not to like?  Incidentally I don't think I'm alone as markets globally have been humming along smoothly.

Well, I have to be honest (without sounding flippant) France felt just fine.  Admittedly, I am a Francophile.  Moreover, I was in some pretty high profile vacation destinations so of course the mood felt upbeat.  That said, I did encounter plenty of pissed-off French who are vowing to leave should Hollande's plans to tax the rich materialize.

Where are they headed?  I'd imagine foreigner-friendly/ low tax destinations will be their first destination.  Probably explains why property prices in cities like New York, London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Monaco have remained resilient despite a tricky economic climate.  As a HK property owner I hope it lasts and frankly I'd be delighted with a new neighbor to help me with my French.  Au Revoir!    

Silkfred.com - Check it out!

Booked my flight to the US.  Will be headed there in May to see one of my best friends from childhood get married.  So interesting to see what happens when everyone's all grown up.  This friend has a particularly cool story.  One of the academically brightest people I have ever met, she has also taken some cool risks professionally.  Started her career at Vogue to later became the fashion editor at Nylon and eventually launched a very well regarded eco-fashion line called Bodkin.  Unfortunately, she did so in 2008 which we all remember was a bit crap (understatement).  Her line won a bunch of accolades but it was still tough going.  Incidentally brings me to my next point.  Discovered this super cool site called silkfred.com.  It's a website for emerging designers.  Despite being a confessed Jbrand junkie, I do really believe in supporting fresh designers.  Actually have to brag one of my best sartorial investments EVER was my Peter Som shearling coat (purchased right before I was transferred to hot/humid HK).  It's from his very first collection and would make even his biggest fan, Michelle Obama, pretty damn jealous.

Speaking of American designers, the American stock markets are acting very well.  Indeed tech helps, Amazon is the latest tech company to report blow-out numbers, but the real estate market is humming along nicely too.  Jobs (or lack thereof) are still a looming concern but that's nothing compared to things going on in Europe.  We talked about Holland, Britain just entered a technical recession while I see credit agencies have downgraded Spain's debt (again)!

Aaghh..STRESSFUL!  I have to wrap it up here.  It's Friday and I'm ready to call it a week!

New Yorkers are back at it...

Finally a deserving break from markets that were whippy last week!  The weekend was great!  Beautiful weather and lots of time outdoors.  Actually spent this weekend playing tennis, eating, sleeping!  Rinse/Repeat.  Perfect actually.

Not everyone was so fortunate.  If you are a New Yorker shopping for an apartments, things could have been pretty stressful.  Hearing of packed open houses and bidding wars again.  Painful if you are buying!

Priced out of New York, maybe check out Newark?  Saying this half in jest (but only half) as the city is making great strides under the leadership of Cory Booker.  A Rhodes scholar with degrees from Yale, Stanford and Oxford, his service-dedicated leadership has been well-publicized.  As if that's not enough, he ran into a burning building this weekend to save his trapped neighbors.  Indeed some critics can be a bit cynical about 'Be Good Booker' as publicity politics.  However, it is under his leadership, that Newark has transformed into one of the fastest growing cities in America and cut crime dramatically.  That, to me, is nothing to be cynical about.  

back to work...

Holidays over and it's back to work this week.  Actually I should not whine about having to work as many Americans are still struggling without jobs.  US employment data was out Thursday and March new jobs was very weak at 120,000 new jobs.  Markets globally are struggling to digest such a weak number.  Jobs - it's definitely going to be the most important 4-letter word in the upcoming election.

While struggling unemployed is nothing to be taken lightly, seems the old adage 'mo money, mo problems' is playing out here in HK.  Note the biggest story right now is the arrest of the billionaire Kwok brothers.  They are the boys behind HK's biggest property company Sun Hung Kai.  They're accused of graft and apparently the chatter is that their older brother Walter is the one who turned them in.  Estranged eldest brother Walter Kwok was ousted from the company in 2008 after years of conflict.  Urban legend has it that the relationship has been strained since Walter's 1997 kidnapping where the younger brothers may have been a bit slow meeting the ransom.  All very intense stuff.

Other bizarre news is that crazy Maryland lady who says she won the mega-millions lottery but lost the ticket.  Whole story is bizarre with allegations that the ticket was part of a work-place pool while she claims it wasn't.  It all sounds like one crazy lady's antics.  Actually, for her, I do hope it was all a giant publicity stunt because as someone who loses EVERYTHING - could you even imagine??

   

Food fantasy gone viral...

Sorry to keep gushing about Tokyo but it was just such a remarkable trip.  Actually have to do a little plug for my man Yasuda-san here.  For any American sushi followers, Naomichi Yasuda should need no introduction.  For those who don't know about him, here's a clip from Anthony Bourdain's No Reservations (Incidentally I'm Bourdain obsessed).  


Yasuda-san has recently relocated from New York to Tokyo with the explicit goal of perfecting his craft.  I already found him flawless so I'm excited/inspired by his search for sushi nirvana.  Accordingly, we made it a very high priority 'to do' on our Tokyo list.   So happy we did as my brother and I were lucky enough to be the only two diners at Sushi Bar Yasuda last Saturday night (How amazing!).  The meal was exquisite!  His tiny restaurant is by reservation only and his preparation is bespoke.  Fits with Yasuda-san's plan for his Tokyo sojourn:  quiet/ low-key and personal.  That said, the modest/often sentimental Yasuda-san did mention he misses his NY regulars (mentioning Anthony Bourdain) very much and worried many could not locate him.  Accordingly, my brother tweeted Bourdain that Yasuda-san is hard at work in Tokyo and sends his regards.  Bourdain in turn re-tweeted that to his 800,000 followers (I bet most of them are women!) and David Chang again re-tweeted to his 30,000 fans as well!  How cool!  My brother's tweet went viral in minutes and he was acknowledged by Anthony Bourdain!  More importantly, we successfully reconnected Bourdain and Yasuda-san. Social Media is truly remarkable!     


Speaking of followers and fans, let's talk about US Real Estate.  Remember when US Real Estate was economic ground zero?  Jeez - what a difference 4 years can make?  US real estate is a 'Hot' investment again.  Note even AIG who needed a bail-out in 2008 wants back in the mortgage market.  It's all pretty encouraging but hope everyone's being prudent.  Certainly don't want to repeat the mistakes of the past.  

Light and easy...

Gotta be quick today - running late.  My brother's Kimcheee and Gal-bee taco was featured at Heirloom last night so I was out on a school night.  I like to avoid this normally but had to be done.  My brother was calling himself the TACOrean yesterday.  Guess gift for words runs in the family?  Kidding! - but TACOrean is pretty witty.


Thankfully not a ton of news to blog about anyway.  Let's revisit some of my favorite topics.  See Apple move last night?  OMG .  Will stop there.  Also note Toll Brothers CEO (one of the biggest US residential housing developers) calling this the best spring for housing in 5 years.


Unfortunately, I work in HK though which is China.  Hopefully China behaves well and the day is uneventful.

Understanding your HK landlord...

How to identify HK expats?  Two certain give-aways.  Actually, three, really.  First, they are probably wasted.  Otherwise they can be found complaining about their household help or rents. 

Unfortunately, I can't really help you with domestic help issues or your drinking problem.  However, I do think I can shed some light on the rent situation.  First, you must accept this fact.  HK landlords, beyond being unreasonable/ sharkish/ greedy/criminal/ (insert whatever slanderous adjective here), are largely DEBT-FREE.  

Latest data reveals, of HK private homes, over 60% are mortgage-free.  I tried to find the comparable US statistic but can only find it based on 2007 census data.   Little outdated but that data reveals homes with mortgage equaled 73.6% of total U.S. household real estate while the value of houses without mortgages was 26.4%.

  

This should begin to explain the bizarre behavior of many-a-HK landlords.  Particularly for anyone burnt by a stubborn HK landlord who just absolutely refuses to negotiate rental 
terms.  Also explains why mere mortals (like myself) hoping for distressed sellers are left with our prayers going unanswered.  Outright owners have the benefit of patience and are rarely pressed to sell.  

Sorry guys.  Not my most helpful post.  Wish I could have offered some savvy negotiating tips but there are few. So it's probably better to stick with your persuasive female charm.  Your chances of running into a financially desperate landlord looks pretty unlikely.      

     

I wanna be a slumlord

I don't think everyone liked my divorce joke yesterday or that super depressing economist chart..sorry.  Kind of in a bad mood anyway because I joined a totally useless weight loss competition (this is very common January trading floor stupidity) that ends March 1.  Unfortunately I didn't lose anything.  So now everyone at work knows how much I weigh AND I may have actually put on weight.  So I'm basically starving for a few days.


Sets up for a rather unpleasant week for me as there is a lot going on in the markets too.  The Mexico City G20 pow-wow was a non-event while Germans agree (begrudgingly)  to the Greek Bailout.  Also Europe decides Wednesday on the second tranche of their program to help banks (LTRO-2).  People will probably spend a lot of time debating was it too big or not  big enough.  Add the never ending Oil debate and it sets up for a pretty annoying week.


That said, looks like American Landlords are having a great time as rents continue to climb.  You see, I actually really fantasize about being an international slum-lord.  Like many of my fellow HK expats, I have written astronomical rent checks to Mr Wang/Mrs. Lee(s) as they amass huge real estate portfolios at my expense.  Well good for them - I'm just jealous.  I do, however, still hold some hope I can fulfill my slumlord dream in the US.  Unfortunately I better get looking fast because Warren Buffet (who is like the Investing God and worth Bazillions) is thinking the same.  He'd buy millions of them (lucky him) but I'd be happy to start with one.  Good place to start would be in these cities.

Life imitates Lilo

Really worried about oil?  Pray to the Weather Gods (literally).  Warm weather is saving us.  Even though we’re paying more at the pump, it’s costing us less to heat our homes.

In other good news,  Lindsay Lohan is in the homestretch to complete probation.  Nice LINZ!  Come on - lets be happy for her.  Yes, she screwed-up a lot but she seems to be getting it together. I actually feel a little bad for her when I see her truly crazy parents.  Not exactly role-models.  Also, she is aging really really badly and she WILL regret that.

Ironically Lindsay’s career and legal problems coincides really well to the housing collapse in the US. Like Lindsay’s early career, we had a raging time where everyone loved us and could not get enough of us.  US housing only went one way and we were happy to believe it was never ever going down.  High on confidence (Linz was high on something else) we spent lavishly.  However serious cracks started to emerge in 2007 (for both) which basically spiralled into a total trainwreck (and then it was game-over).  On Jul 6, 2010 when Linz donned orange and joined the inmate population, it definitely looked like her E True Hollywood store was done/dusted.  We can say the same about US housing where everyone wrote it off as Gone-zo/Dead.

However, like Linz, looks like things are looking very much on the up and up for US housing.  Chatter has been growing recovery is nigh  but many shrugged it off.  Now disbelievers are really getting backed into a corner.  Wednesday’s US housing data was very encouraging.  Existing home sales rose 4.3% (highest in 18 months).  And the supply of homes on the market has plunged to 2.3 million,  lowest level in almost six years.   If we continue at this pace  we’ll clear these homes in six months.  That is good for prices.

Couple this housing data with unemployment at 8.3% (lowest level in three years) and certainly the US is headed in the right direction.    Yes we still have demons (Greece and Oil are the big ones) but nobody’s perfect.  Lindsay could tell you that.

President's Day - Celebrate America (Foreigners certainly are!)

Wish we had a four day week here in HK.  But I wish for lots of things.  Speaking of,  one very lucky 22 year old Russian girl was gifted a U$88m Central Park West penthouse ( the most expensive home in New York).  I think I got a Banana Republic sweater and dined at TGIF for my 22^nd. Anyway I’m just jealous - lucky lucky lady! In other rants, UUGH- Brazilians get all the breaks!!  Ridiculous Gisele-like genes and Brazil recently overtook the UK to become the sixth-largest economy in the world.   Some potentially bad news for single NY women here (as if Manhattan men weren’t already spoiled-for-choice), Brazilians now binging on Manhattan (and Miami) real estate. 

What's all the fuss about American real estate? Wasn't it just recently when US housing was imploding?   Well, things are changing fast with some of the BIGGEST US Housing haters now saying ‘Beg/Borrow/Steal- Buy US homes now!’  John Paulson/ Marc Faber/ John Talbott and even Greg Lippman (from ‘The Big Short’) to name some of the more notable guys.  To put this in context – these guys were among the most outspoken ‘US Housing is Screwed’ prophets – so their conversion would be on par with Marilyn Manson finding the Lord.

Why do I side with the newly converted?  Record low mortgage rates (30 year FIXED sub 4%); tight inventory after a three year drought in building (2009 was actually the lowest since record-keeping began in 1959);  more affordability relative to income (means it will no longer take 95% of your paycheck and 100 years to pay back your mortgage) and things are simply cheap.    Quoting Lippman ‘many cities across the country are now selling for as little as $60 to $70 a square foot….a 50% to 65% discount to the costs you would incur if you tried to build a similar home today in these cities.’  Basically means even if you physically chopped up trees and built that house yourself (which we would never unless maybe it was with Ryan Gosling in the Notebook),  it still doesn't get cheaper. 

Meanwhile the Obama administration is working its butt-off to support the housing market (and of course get re-elected).  Obama’s Heal Housing Plan includes plans to allow home-owners to refinance at record low rates as well as a government supported Real-Estate Owned (REO) pilot.  This is basically a government supported plan to sell foreclosed homes to investors who in-turn promise to rent them back to the occupants. You see, as a home-owner you want an abandoned house (or foreclosed seller) on your street about as badly as you want a meth lab.  And this solution would hopefully help stop people from just going MIA.  Indeed still lots of skeptics (particularly Republicans) but foreigners seem to need far less convincing.  Well-tanned foreigners now account for more than 65% of all condo and home sales in Miami. At this rate, loud-mouthed Americans better brush up on their Portuguese.  

California Dreaming

Ladies – it might be ok to start splurging on that Chanel bag as things are looking a lot better.  Maybe we don't feel it as much in HK which is a bit too finance-tastic or we have too many banker friends laid-off,  but don't get blinded.  Did you know there are more Silicon Valley millionaires than the dotcom hey-day and lots of billionaires this time too. Unfortunately we can’t all work for facebook (be wary of guys who say they do because it’s become quite the pick up line), but seriously good for asset prices (houses and stocks but diamonds too J).  Also, while you may hear bankers complaining about bonuses and lack of cash – don't forget their stock awards are now up 15-20% from where they were awarded just a few short weeks ago.  

Yes European debt crisis is still looming (Greeks are behaving badly) but I don't like armageddon scenarios (I’m a Lehman survivor) and Europe is simply too big to fail.  Bit cliche, I know, but I think that policy response will be a global coordinated effort…I mean seriously can you imagine Europe imploding?  World won’t let it happen.  Although things will be bumpy in the next few weeks with a lot of decisions to be made.  As an aside, I was in Paris and they marked up everything – Pricing adjustments seems to reflect a weak Euro and really nothing was that cheap.  

Recently I made a bet for a business class flight to US with my friend that Obama is going to be re-elected.  I’m so excited for November to see this materialize.  Not because I like Obama but more because I'm confident it will happen.  US is recovering at an amazing pace and housing is coming back in a big way.  Not only because employment is improving but cheap interest rates and (stealing from KRUGMAN here) ‘US is seriously under-housed by historical standards (we’ve built very few houses in the six years since the housing bubble popped) and the sharp fall in household formation — econospeak for lots of young adults living with their parents because they can’t afford to move out.’  THIS IS TOTALLY TRUE, my brother is 25 and all his friends had to move home post college (haha and he too is living with me!).  Anyway will wrap it up here - if you’ve been looking wistfully at California properties (like me), I think it’s time to get serious.